Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16407

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.149). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16406, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16407
    31 Oct 2026, 16:35 UTC

    GMIP

    microglia, braak

    predictionGMIP in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbf3971d69c6893d5

    discovery-0.52 p=0.149 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.149)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9a7f5541285e9a43e617aae3…
    follows a84a164f26aa…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16407: GMIP in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.00 to +0.25, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GMIP in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.