Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16406

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.367). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16405, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16406
    31 Oct 2026, 16:33 UTC

    RABGEF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRABGEF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered36538d385c637f9f

    discovery+0.34 p=0.367 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.563 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.367)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a84a164f26aa71e0262af0cf…
    follows 63b7c3ce2cb9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16406: RABGEF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RABGEF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.