Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16408

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16407, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16408
    31 Oct 2026, 16:35 UTC

    GMIP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGMIP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered774123671e82c408

    discovery-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    replication-0.68 p=0.046 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    89d8ed299be998284d6d05fa…
    follows 9a7f5541285e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16408: GMIP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GMIP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.