Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16405

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.298). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16404, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16405
    31 Oct 2026, 16:33 UTC

    RABGEF1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionRABGEF1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede13609c2b45502ed

    discovery+0.39 p=0.298 n=9

    replication-0.23 p=0.555 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.298)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    63b7c3ce2cb967d1def851c0…
    follows b282b26a6658…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16405: RABGEF1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RABGEF1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.