Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16165

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.514). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16164, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16165
    31 Oct 2026, 11:08 UTC

    SORBS1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSORBS1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered492927d2caebe95b

    discovery-0.25 p=0.514 n=9

    replication-0.70 p=0.034 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.514)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dc62bad8dcd6de87c3935322…
    follows 38ecbcaaf52e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16165: SORBS1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SORBS1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.