Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16164

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.646). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16163, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16164
    31 Oct 2026, 11:08 UTC

    SORBS1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSORBS1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd0939201099dde8f

    discovery+0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.499 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.646)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    38ecbcaaf52e1020210f3f68…
    follows 1ffc167ae5d4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16164: SORBS1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.925, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.08, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.925, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SORBS1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.