Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16006

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.697). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16005, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16006
    31 Oct 2026, 07:34 UTC

    TMIGD3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMIGD3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd980a87f5cda4efd

    discovery+0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    replication-0.08 p=0.842 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.697)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    02666dae489d9888c5f22959…
    follows 3d31ff4eb8b8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16006: TMIGD3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.13, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMIGD3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.