Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16005

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16004, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16005
    31 Oct 2026, 07:33 UTC

    TMIGD3

    microglia, braak

    predictionTMIGD3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7e6875d720f6b941

    discovery-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3d31ff4eb8b8bac969fa92cd…
    follows d5194ad3443a…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16005: TMIGD3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.03, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMIGD3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.