Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15988

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15987, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15988
    31 Oct 2026, 07:12 UTC

    GTF2H2C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGTF2H2C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered18beb785200976fe

    discovery+0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5ed7d851baa327bc93fd1efb…
    follows 3c7dd98bf093…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15988: GTF2H2C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.17, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GTF2H2C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.