Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15987

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.500). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15986, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15987
    31 Oct 2026, 07:11 UTC

    GTF2H2C

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGTF2H2C in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered451b663bb5af3e9a

    discovery+0.26 p=0.500 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.184 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.500)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3c7dd98bf093f14cb7eb333a…
    follows 751fcc88a89b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15987: GTF2H2C in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.02, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GTF2H2C in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.