Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15937

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15936, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15937
    31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC

    MRO

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMRO in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredecc697a1edd6249e

    discovery+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6e11111a081f5f8d8145f20c…
    follows bb844eb560a5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15937: MRO in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MRO in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.