Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15936

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.138). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15935, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15936
    31 Oct 2026, 06:03 UTC

    VPS50

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVPS50 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered200a0a9f75dc0463

    discovery+0.53 p=0.138 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.138)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bb844eb560a5848fa88b5cd1…
    follows 750d08accb0e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15936: VPS50 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.20 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VPS50 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.