Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15908

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.689). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15907, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15908
    31 Oct 2026, 05:24 UTC

    ABCA8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionABCA8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbc47477918fba5e3

    discovery+0.16 p=0.689 n=9

    replication+0.57 p=0.109 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.689)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    297a555901caff692c7c5d3d…
    follows b6a280d8f2d1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15908: ABCA8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.36 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ABCA8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.