Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15907

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.778). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15906, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15907
    31 Oct 2026, 05:24 UTC

    ABCA8

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionABCA8 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3df60981d51f250b

    discovery+0.11 p=0.778 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.476 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.778)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b6a280d8f2d1ca14f0d3da2f…
    follows b79928d522b2…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15907: ABCA8 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18), 95% CI -0.03 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.38 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ABCA8 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.