Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15787

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.130). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15786, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15787
    31 Oct 2026, 02:45 UTC

    DENND3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDENND3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1705ff5305313cd4

    discovery-0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.130)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fa1b1120c8e3c92485391501…
    follows 277a26c848f2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15787: DENND3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.67 (p 0.0025, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DENND3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.