Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15786

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.084). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15785, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15786
    31 Oct 2026, 02:45 UTC

    DENND3

    microglia, braak

    predictionDENND3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6bd9b3f827412ed7

    discovery+0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.648 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.084)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    277a26c848f204d17b17e936…
    follows a6db95cbf4f9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15786: DENND3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.20 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DENND3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.