Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15719

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15718, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15719
    31 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC

    SRCAP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSRCAP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered28b29890925dd8b1

    discovery-0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    replication+0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    02f73c7c1d890f4d852bdcf2…
    follows 9271f443fc23…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15719: SRCAP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SRCAP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.