Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15718

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.380). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15717, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15718
    31 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC

    SRCAP

    microglia, braak

    predictionSRCAP in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredde9364d14b8443a0

    discovery-0.33 p=0.380 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.350 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.380)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9271f443fc23d5cbc77c163b…
    follows b79b52a6aff1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15718: SRCAP in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SRCAP in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.