Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15716

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.132). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15715, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15716
    31 Oct 2026, 01:54 UTC

    BCAR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBCAR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9019fbb022221526

    discovery-0.54 p=0.132 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.244 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.132)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2aeff2a22aaf8c795e3d5f72…
    follows 9b780bc04d81…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15716: BCAR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BCAR1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.