Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15715

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15714, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15715
    31 Oct 2026, 01:54 UTC

    BCAR1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionBCAR1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered11eceffa8324392d

    discovery-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.385 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9b780bc04d813ed697e55e1c…
    follows 3df51895fd79…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15715: BCAR1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BCAR1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.