Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15522

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15521, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15522
    30 Oct 2026, 21:33 UTC

    KLF13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKLF13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4c761e6d27f239b3

    discovery-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    replication-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    15ecf913bd8cb120d4c6e483…
    follows 4ff9be17205c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15522: KLF13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.73 (p 5.3e-4, n 18) vs -0.43 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KLF13 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up KLF13 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.63 p 0.026 (needs p < 1.5e-4)