Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15521

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.84 p 0.0048; held-out -0.63 p 0.069). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15520, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15521
    30 Oct 2026, 21:33 UTC

    KLF13

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionKLF13 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3090e8aaeb456b7e

    discovery-0.84 p=0.0048 n=9

    replication-0.63 p=0.069 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.84 p 0.0048; held-out -0.63 p 0.069)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    4ff9be17205c59e08b7d9ef1…
    follows 95047a113273…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15521: KLF13 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.73 (p 5.3e-4, n 18), 95% CI -0.89 to -0.41. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.70 (p 0.0011, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.76 (p 2.7e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.79 to -0.70, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.73 (p 5.3e-4, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KLF13 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.