Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15416

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.238). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15415, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15416
    30 Oct 2026, 19:07 UTC

    GPR183

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPR183 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb6ac703f5454dfe2

    discovery+0.44 p=0.238 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.299 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.238)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5c92a2d3878b6848f5b96a73…
    follows dd340a116a3b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15416: GPR183 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.11, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPR183 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.