Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15417

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15416, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15417
    30 Oct 2026, 19:10 UTC

    SMIM17

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSMIM17 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered604befc48240ac90

    discovery-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.652 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8a9b457af1d4d81403463782…
    follows 5c92a2d3878b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15417: SMIM17 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SMIM17 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.