Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15415

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.514). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15414, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15415
    30 Oct 2026, 19:07 UTC

    GPR183

    microglia, braak

    predictionGPR183 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfbd7e98140091cf2

    discovery-0.25 p=0.514 n=9

    replication+0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.514)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dd340a116a3b38e9334892f9…
    follows 2d58da0463d7…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15415: GPR183 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.19, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPR183 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.