Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15296

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15295, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15296
    30 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

    GPR34

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPR34 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd28b12d3364b877b

    discovery+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    88c93bc485aa4f42ecfbdad4…
    follows 6143f8fcc9fd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15296: GPR34 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18), 95% CI -0.18 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.22 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPR34 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.