Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15295

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15294, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15295
    30 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

    GPR34

    microglia, braak

    predictionGPR34 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4f2574d5d4f5fe0d

    discovery-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication+0.56 p=0.118 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6143f8fcc9fd5eb7bb7a4c37…
    follows d583997fe91f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15295: GPR34 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPR34 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.