Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15238

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.232). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15237, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15238
    30 Oct 2026, 15:10 UTC

    IFI44L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIFI44L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb1cff9275806f71b

    discovery+0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    replication+0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.232)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d8e75fe765cbaac1955b4ddc…
    follows ff3a04366e6c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15238: IFI44L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.323, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IFI44L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.