Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15237

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.947). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15236, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15237
    30 Oct 2026, 15:10 UTC

    IFI44L

    microglia, braak

    predictionIFI44L in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredae9c93e0d387c0ae

    discovery+0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.947)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ff3a04366e6c72066e1c3488…
    follows d12271d4b694…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15237: IFI44L in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.15, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IFI44L in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.