Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15003

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.630). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15002, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15003
    30 Oct 2026, 08:41 UTC

    TRIM26

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTRIM26 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3a34b0685b8186ed

    discovery-0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.756 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.630)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    29a4c0f9d30003c62cfb654e…
    follows 35159358b211…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15003: TRIM26 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: -0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18) vs -0.26 in oligodendrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRIM26 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TRIM26 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured