Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14897

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.109). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14896, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14897
    30 Oct 2026, 06:13 UTC

    MATN4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMATN4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6a702cd3725cf233

    discovery-0.57 p=0.109 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.109)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    79ff97a301677352b1d7579d…
    follows 155c1425955f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14897: MATN4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MATN4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.