Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14896

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.656). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14895, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14896
    30 Oct 2026, 06:13 UTC

    MATN4

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMATN4 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd90aff44635c3d13

    discovery+0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    replication-0.67 p=0.049 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.656)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    155c1425955febdf829aac84…
    follows 6247b28bf69c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14896: MATN4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MATN4 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.