Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14656

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.944). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14655, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14656
    30 Oct 2026, 01:27 UTC

    RAPGEF4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRAPGEF4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3fb8fd6c2928a97a

    discovery-0.03 p=0.944 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.944)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    43897523da476206b6cb7260…
    follows b23c08755908…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14656: RAPGEF4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.20, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAPGEF4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.