Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14655

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14654, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14655
    30 Oct 2026, 01:27 UTC

    RAPGEF4

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionRAPGEF4 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered21bb64eecc74cba1

    discovery-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication+0.17 p=0.671 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b23c087559082516abe3fae4…
    follows 1feab27db7a8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14655: RAPGEF4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.827, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.06, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAPGEF4 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.