Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

RAPGEF4

Rap guanine nucleotide exchange factor 4

translation score 0.52, read 2026-10-30; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.00 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including oligodendrocyte progenitor cells; strongest in adrenal cortex cells0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
no papers tie it to Parkinson's yet1.00
pathways
Reactome
4 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 14649

Sealed predictions

  1. RAPGEF4 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.03 (p 0.944) → +0.29 (p 0.443)receipt 14656
  2. RAPGEF4 in oligodendrocytes, braak-0.24 (p 0.533) → +0.17 (p 0.671)receipt 14655

Swarm cases

receipt 14656: RAPGEF4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.20, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAPGEF4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 14655: RAPGEF4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.827, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.06, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAPGEF4 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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