Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14532

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.067). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14531, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14532
    29 Oct 2026, 22:38 UTC

    SPEG

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSPEG in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4e3449dc4def3bf2

    discovery-0.63 p=0.067 n=9

    replication+0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.067)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3daa3baca0c15b2631592cb4…
    follows 86b93ec9a571…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14532: SPEG in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.62 (p 0.0062, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPEG in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.