Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14531

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.436). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14530, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14531
    29 Oct 2026, 22:38 UTC

    SPEG

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSPEG in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2cc4351d7e08cde5

    discovery-0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.436)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    86b93ec9a571be1b527d2d42…
    follows b0b00b0d6f7b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14531: SPEG in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPEG in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.