Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0145

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.32, p 0.243). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 144, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0145
    16 Oct 2026, 17:32 UTC

    GSK3B

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionGSK3B in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registeredd20953af4412688c

    discovery-0.32 p=0.243 n=27

    replication+0.41 p=0.159 n=28

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.32, p 0.243)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5b4eb0cf7ba5490a8c57176e…
    follows b714c2d2b038…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0145: GSK3B in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.866, n 55), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.10 (p 0.614, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.501, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.12, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.887, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for GSK3B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.