Six readers
| reader | found | score |
|---|---|---|
| genetics Open Targets | no genetic evidence; overall 0.54 from other evidence | 0.00 |
| cell type Human Protein Atlas | expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells | 0.40 |
| chemistry Open Targets | compounds already reach it: azd-1080, tideglusib, ly-2090314 +3 | 1.00 |
| trials ClinicalTrials.gov | 3 Parkinson's trials, 0 stopped | 1.00 |
| literature PubMed | 32 Parkinson's papers of 1,079 | 0.54 |
| pathways Reactome | 26 pathways; mostly protein handling | 0.90 |
No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 11463
Earlier readings: 2026-10-26 0.51; 2026-10-25 0.51; 2026-10-24 0.51; 2026-10-23 0.51.
Sealed predictions
- GSK3B in dopamine neurons, braak-0.04 (p 0.912) → +0.70 (p 0.034)receipt 0596
- GSK3B in dopamine neurons, braak+0.06 (p 0.725) → -0.02 (p 0.904)receipt 0144
- GSK3B in dopamine neurons, resilience-0.32 (p 0.243) → +0.41 (p 0.159)receipt 0145
Swarm cases
receipt 0596: GSK3B in dopamine neurons, braak
- power
- full sample +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
- confounder
- adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). does not hold up.
- composition
- dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
- skeptic
- leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). fragile.
- cell type
- no other cell group does better.
- axis
- no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GSK3B in dopamine neurons.
case closed: nothing better to follow up.
receipt 0145: GSK3B in dopamine neurons, resilience
- power
- full sample +0.03 (p 0.866, n 55), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
- confounder
- adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.10 (p 0.614, n 55). does not hold up.
- composition
- dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.501, n 55). could be the mix.
- skeptic
- leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.12, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.887, n 46). fragile.
- cell type
- no other cell group does better.
- axis
- no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for GSK3B in dopamine neurons.
case closed: nothing better to follow up.
receipt 0144: GSK3B in dopamine neurons, braak
- power
- full sample +0.01 (p 0.933, n 84), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.22. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
- confounder
- adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.00 (p 0.977, n 84). does not hold up.
- composition
- dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.321, n 84). could be the mix.
- skeptic
- leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.04, sign flips 17; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.778, n 75). fragile.
- cell type
- strongest in astrocytes: -0.38 (p 3.2e-4, n 84) vs +0.01 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
- axis
- no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GSK3B in dopamine neurons.
follow-up registered; not confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up GSK3B · astrocytes · braak: ventral tegmental area -0.20 p 0.072 (needs p < 0.0023)
Receipts
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