Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0144

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.725). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 143, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0144
    16 Oct 2026, 17:32 UTC

    GSK3B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGSK3B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredebbafd2bf6401183

    discovery+0.06 p=0.725 n=42

    replication-0.02 p=0.904 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.725)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b714c2d2b0380e2537da8579…
    follows 58c3938c6519…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0144: GSK3B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.933, n 84), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.22. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.00 (p 0.977, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.321, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.04, sign flips 17; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.778, n 75). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.38 (p 3.2e-4, n 84) vs +0.01 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GSK3B in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up GSK3B · astrocytes · braak: ventral tegmental area -0.20 p 0.072 (needs p < 0.0023)