Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14469

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.179). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14468, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14469
    29 Oct 2026, 21:15 UTC

    FAM149A

    microglia, braak

    predictionFAM149A in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0affdfb6e446e490

    discovery-0.49 p=0.179 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.466 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.179)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9a46abf5306c8f1ec9f47c01…
    follows 266523e49f8b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14469: FAM149A in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM149A in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.