Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14448

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.75 p 0.019; held-out +0.52 p 0.153). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14447, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14448
    29 Oct 2026, 20:44 UTC

    MYH15

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMYH15 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf3a949db6b1b7b0c

    discovery+0.75 p=0.019 n=9

    replication+0.52 p=0.153 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.75 p 0.019; held-out +0.52 p 0.153)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    aebd5ca4284a0b37eb3bbe92…
    follows 3316cbfc2d6d…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14448: MYH15 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.53 (p 0.025, n 18), 95% CI +0.08 to +0.80. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.45 to +0.69, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYH15 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.