Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14447

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.57, p 0.109). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14446, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14447
    29 Oct 2026, 20:44 UTC

    MYH15

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMYH15 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf971d6e8f6f50249

    discovery+0.57 p=0.109 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.57, p 0.109)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3316cbfc2d6df45d851bbede…
    follows 0c6063e6e468…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14447: MYH15 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYH15 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.