Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14435

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.750). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14434, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14435
    29 Oct 2026, 20:28 UTC

    NFATC4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNFATC4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5c93516f6bc6648e

    discovery-0.12 p=0.750 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.217 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.750)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f6644675ffca85252607cd8e…
    follows f3de38e1f8c3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14435: NFATC4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NFATC4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.