Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

NFATC4

nuclear factor of activated T cells 4

translation score 0.45, read 2026-10-29; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.00 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
group enriched in astrocytes (54 nCPM)1.00
chemistry
Open Targets
hard to drug0.00
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
no papers tie it to Parkinson's yet1.00
pathways
Reactome
in no curated pathway0.00

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 14427

Sealed predictions

  1. NFATC4 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.12 (p 0.750) → -0.46 (p 0.217)receipt 14435
  2. NFATC4 in astrocytes, braak+0.28 (p 0.472) → +0.21 (p 0.583)receipt 14434

Swarm cases

receipt 14435: NFATC4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NFATC4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 14434: NFATC4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NFATC4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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