Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14434

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14433, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14434
    29 Oct 2026, 20:28 UTC

    NFATC4

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionNFATC4 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered84510d5702115bf5

    discovery+0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.583 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f3de38e1f8c347903fbbb921…
    follows 31d7821bc2f3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14434: NFATC4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NFATC4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.