Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14300

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14299, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14300
    29 Oct 2026, 17:22 UTC

    DLG5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDLG5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered54c7d08b6a804ede

    discovery-0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.101 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6db40aa84cbe5ff0338e672d…
    follows 42b39f0f5d76…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14300: DLG5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.010, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.68 (p 0.0021, n 18) vs -0.39 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DLG5 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up DLG5 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)