Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14299

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.209). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14298, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14299
    29 Oct 2026, 17:22 UTC

    DLG5

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionDLG5 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7e079672abce9a09

    discovery-0.46 p=0.209 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.209)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    42b39f0f5d765aace9fbaa7a…
    follows fa7521359d93…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14299: DLG5 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.68 (p 0.0021, n 18) vs -0.23 in astrocytes. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DLG5 in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up DLG5 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.53 p 0.062 (needs p < 1.6e-4)