Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14237

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.739). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14236, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14237
    29 Oct 2026, 15:59 UTC

    FLRT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFLRT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredba3fd7e5d7204903

    discovery-0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.212 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.739)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6c078c8195e8afedac9fb577…
    follows fd639d934ce2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14237: FLRT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FLRT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.