Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14026

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.981). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14025, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14026
    29 Oct 2026, 11:14 UTC

    ARAP2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionARAP2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbaab618a70c445f1

    discovery-0.01 p=0.981 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.981)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8e9e8a0e3ff89144094a0142…
    follows fafa77027496…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14026: ARAP2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.00 to +0.17, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARAP2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.